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March 26, 2019
Op Ed - Iranian Affairs

Warsaw Conference’s Timing Heralds the Oncoming Demise of the Iranian Regime

Is it possible that the Warsaw Conference that was held last month, could be as decisive as the Guadeloupe 1979 conference in France, which succeeded in laying the groundwork for the political decisions and supportive positions that led to the overthrow of the Shah’s regime?

We can agree with optimists who assert that the conference objectives should be welcomed without reservations about the objectives of those backing it and without doubts about the aims behind it or the possible future goals following the fall of the regime. This is achieved through diligent preparation for all eventualities by establishing a unified force with its own program of action and agreed upon standards based on plans unconnected to the sectarian theocratic regime or the monarchy that preceded it but solely concerning the need to ensure the freedom, wellbeing and rights of peoples in Iran with all their ethnic diversities.

Before any such plans can be drawn up, it must be asked how a coherent coalition can be created to not only help the people to depose the mullahs’ brutal regime in Tehran but also to disempower and eradicate its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

Is it possible that the Warsaw Conference that was held last month, could be as decisive as the Guadeloupe 1979 conference in France, which succeeded in laying the groundwork for the political decisions and supportive positions that led to the overthrow of the Shah’s regime

These questions must be clearly and satisfactorily resolved in order to ensure that the peoples of Iran and the region are the beneficiaries of any action, so that it cannot be exploited by figures with malign motives who would seek to benefit from any sudden transformation as they did previously, and that we must prepare for the aims of this conference in a conscientious manner.

The political, economic and social conditions inside Iran seem to be favorable at present for the people to finally have freedom from the brutal regime of the mullahs after forty years of totalitarian rule, with the theocratic regime’s sectarian ideology and terrorist orientation based first of all on enriching the regime and maintaining its absolute merciless power and ability to impose authority. Since the start, the regime has adopted reckless and violent policies focusing on creating and supporting terrorist organizations around the world, especially in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. All of Iran’s citizens, particularly the non-Persian ethnic peoples, are horribly impoverished because the regime’s lavish support of these terrorist organizations has squandered vast sums of the public’s money, having a devastating effect on the living conditions of citizens.

Moreover, corruption is endemic at every level in all the state bodies and apparatuses which are effectively granted immunity through support from the regime’s religious and judicial institutions. In addition, just like the regime which preceded it, the regime has intensified a system of unofficial but very real supremacism, apartheid, and sectarianism in favor of one race which is Persian and one religious sect which is Shiite. The environmental, as well as social effects of these policies, have been devastating, with the regime laying waste to vast areas of the non-Persian oppressed minorities while spending large sums on the Persian regions, inciting further resentment from the minority peoples.

These policies have actively promoted and caused death by starvation and thirst in the Ahwazi, Kurdish, Baloch and Turkish areas, even while the regime has diverted resources from these areas to ensure the wellbeing of Persian citizens in Isfahan, Kashan, Yazd, and Qom.  Non-Persian ethnic Minorities in Iran, who have endured every form of repression, humiliation, and injustice, have been demanding the most fundamental human rights, which are nominally guaranteed to all peoples by the UN Declaration of Human Rights, for decades.  However, the Iranian regime’s significance to the international community, supposedly as a model for the rest of the region’s peoples, has blinded the conscience of the world to the grotesque injustice inflicted on Iran’s ethnic minorities for decades.

These questions must be clearly and satisfactorily resolved in order to ensure that the peoples of Iran and the region are the beneficiaries of any action, so that it cannot be exploited by figures with malign motives who would seek to benefit from any sudden transformation as they did previously, and that we must prepare for the aims of this conference in a conscientious manner.

Past experiences are likely to dictate to the organizers of this conference as they address the issue, which political formulas are best avoided due to their previous failure, particularly since the current reality which the delegates and all Iranian supporters of freedom and democracy wish to change is the product of a similar political formula which brought the Mullahs to power. We, therefore, support an approach that does not lose sight of the political, economic, social and cultural reality of the ethnic minorities. We support policies based on the values of wholly universal justice for all citizens and reject any injustice in all its forms.

 Ethnic minorities ensure stability and security

The international reality in 2019 is radically different from the international situation 40 years ago. The reality domestically in Iran has also developed during this period. In the era of monarchy, the historical consciousness of non-Persian peoples developed and its features were shaped in reaction to the nature of that phase, which had previously disempowered them, preventing them from taking initiatives for fear that such ideas might encourage insurrection. Since then, however, despite the Mullahs’ brutal rule, the suppressed ethnic minorities have achieved great strides forward in their struggle for freedom from tyranny, increasing their outreach to the world’s centers of influence and becoming a force for democratic change that is difficult to overcome. Furthermore, the support of the ethnic minorities, given their collective status as the majority of the population in the country, will make them the central pillar in ensuring the success of any solution that can finally bring real freedom, democracy, security and stability to the region.

The regime is increasingly aware that the non-Persian ethnic minorities, especially given their growing unity, form a formidable bloc and a major force of opposition, and that these groups are not about to abandon their struggle for freedom, especially since their grievances spring from a desire for freedom from decades-long institutionalized injustice, oppression, and annihilation. Despite the fact that the majority of Iran’s population consists of a mosaic of different ethnicities, including Kurds, Ahwazis, Balochis, and Turkmen, no consideration is given to affording equal rights to the non-Persian peoples. This has prompted several of the opposition organizations and parties representing these minorities to reverse their previous support for being part of a wider Iranian opposition, instead opting for the right to self-determination and independence under different slogans.

Premises predict results

The premises and statements that preceded the conference predict the desired results if they can be unified and brought into line with the successive developments that are gradually tightening the noose around the mullahs’ regime in Tehran. The growing American determination to take gradual steps against the mullahs’ regime has broadened the scope of the pro-change coalition in Iran. Also, there is a near-total European shift towards adopting a firm stance against the mullahs’ gang, which confirms that the latter has lost the ally upon whom it relied on repelling any American action, which is moving steadily forward to bring its long, terrible tenure to an end. More facts about the mullahs’ involvement in terrorist operations in Europe and the world are unfolding daily before and after the conference. The wailing of the regime and its threat of further violent acts are nothing but the futile death rattle of a poisonous and extremist creature before its demise.

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